April 2020 Summary Statistics

Much like I did with the month of March, I hope to present some summary statistics which can explain the trends that we observed during the month of April.

Total Case Growth
Total cases on 1 April: 2,254
Total cases in 30 April: 24,536
Total case increase: 22,282

Smallest daily case increase: 297 (1 April)
Largest daily case increase: 1,272 (25 April)

Median daily growth rate: 7%
Average daily growth rate: 9%



Total Fatality Growth
Total fatalities on 1 April: 36
Total fatalities in 30 April: 1,067
Total fatality increase: 1,031

Smallest daily fatality increase: 6 (2 April)
Largest daily fatality increase: 80 (29 April)

Median daily growth rate: 10%
Average daily growth rate: 10%

 
State-Level Shares for April 2020

Average & median share of regional cases for Maryland: 48%, 49%
Average & median share of regional fatalities for Maryland: 52%, 54%
Maryland share of DC metropolitan-area population: 42%

Average & median share of regional cases for DC: 23%, 22%
Average & median share of regional fatalities for DC: 26%, 25%
DC share of DC metropolitan-area population: 13%


Average & median share of regional cases for Virginia: 29%, 28%
Average & median share of regional fatalities for Virginia: 22%, 22%
Virginia share of DC metropolitan-area population: 45%


Population-adjusted statistics, per 1,000 of population (data as of 30 April)
MD cases: 4.971
MD fatalities: 0.250

 DC cases: 6.631
DC fatalities: 0.329

 VA cases: 3.193
VA fatalities: 0.096





 *For reference, the total populations of the relevant regions of Maryland, DC, and Virginia respectively are 2,379,026, 702,455 , and 2,522,001, with the respective shares 42%, 13%, and 45%. I still need to do a blog post detailing how I produced these figures.

Comments

  1. UnknownMay 3, 2020 at 10:14 AM

    Thanks man!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TYMay 3, 2020 at 3:32 PM

      Likewise, thank you, for your readership and your feedback.

      Delete
  2. ronbrownfanMay 3, 2020 at 1:58 PM

    It would be interesting to know why the VA suburbs are (so far) doing better than the MD suburbs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MongooseMay 3, 2020 at 2:57 PM

      Could be racial composition as some races are impacted by Covid more than others. PG county has more than MoCo has more than Fairfax.

      Delete
    2. TYMay 3, 2020 at 3:33 PM

      It definitely is a trend that is catching my eye. One would expect DC, as a largely urban jurisdiction, to be distinct, but the difference between MD and VA are worth further discussion.

      Delete
  3. MCRMay 3, 2020 at 8:10 PM

    Doubling time has been going down pretty consistently over the past week. This means we're on an upswing again right? Not good news.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. TYMay 4, 2020 at 7:25 AM

      Modest decreases in doubling time with respect to confirmed cases. However, a huge question (one which I'm not qualified to answer at this point) is if this is because more infections are occurring, or simply if testing capacity is catching up with cases that were already out there.

      Delete

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