March 2020 Summary Statistics

Here are some summary statistics of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the DC area, along with a little bit of analysis on my part. If you want the numbers for 31 March, please visit this blog post.

 Total Case Growth
Total cases on 1 March: 0
Total cases in 31 March: 1,957
Total case increase: 1,957

Smallest daily case increase: 0 (6 March)
Largest daily case increase: 283 (31 March)

Median daily growth rate: 23%
Average daily growth rate: 30%



This was the first month that the DC area had any cases, so all growth is relative to the starting point of zero at the beginning of the month. After some early noise, it seems that the daily growth rate hovers in the 20-30% range, with maybe a slight dip towards the end of the month. It's far too soon to see if that's the beginning of a further decline in growth rates, or just more noise.

State-Level Shares

Share of regional cases for Maryland, minimum: 32% (14 & 19 March)
Share of regional cases for Maryland, maximum: 100% (5 & 6 March)
Average share of regional cases for Maryland: 43%
Median share of regional cases for Maryland: 38%

Share of regional cases for DC, minimum: 0% (5 & 6 March)
Share of regional cases for DC, maximum: 39% (19 March)
Average share of regional cases for DC: 29%
Median share of regional cases for DC: 30%

Share of regional cases for Virginia, minimum: 0% (5 & 6 March)
Share of regional cases for Virginia, maximum: 43% (13 March)
Average share of regional cases for Virginia: 28%
Median share of regional cases for Virginia: 29%


To help put these numbers into context, you first need to know the relative population of each jurisdiction. I will do a more fleshed-out blog post showing population levels, but as of 2018, the respective population shares for Maryland, DC, and Virginia with respect to the entire DC area was 42%, 13%, and 45%.

Maryland briefly had 100% of the cases, but clearly that didn't last very long. The big takeaway that I get from this is that while Maryland's share of cases are quite close to their share of regional population, the same is not true for DC and Virginia. DC "overperforms" while Virginia "underperforms" (in a morally neutral sense) with those comparisons. I am not an epidemiologist, and I wont speculate as to the reasons why this apparent discrepancy exists, but I will keep an eye on it in April. I suspect that as time goes on, the shares of cases will more closely match the regional population shares. If not, there will be an interesting discussion to follow, I'm sure.

April Thoughts

 As mentioned, I will be looking to see how the patterns that started to emerge in late March hold up as we move into April. My next big goal is to get the numbers for regional deaths up on here. While I have most of the numbers, there are nonetheless a few hurdles associated with that; furthermore it's not particularly pleasant to have to read the death notices (the best way to figure out if the death was in the DC region or not) as I'm compiling the statistics. In any event, look for that in a coming blog post.




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