Vaccine Effects Likely Pushing Down Case Counts

If you've been a regular reader of this blog, you will have noted that in recent weeks, the daily count of new COVID-19 infections has been falling quite rapidly. As of this week, case counts are typically in the 200s, which is a notable decrease from even two weeks ago, when they were more in the 500s.

The initial decline in new case counts in 2020 was without question a "secular" decline, coming at the tail end of the autumn/winter 2020/2021 second peak in the area. If you look at the chart, you'll see that the new case count came down from its peak in January 2021, and flattened-out around March in the ~875/day range. 

Notably, during this time, vaccinations were relatively scant, and likely had little to no effect on this decline (certainly not on the initial stages of the decline.

The ~800 daily case count held steady for about 4-6 weeks, only starting to decline in early April. That's when I believe that vaccination effects started to take hold. 

If you look at the chart, you'll see a fairly constant downward trend since mid-April. The only question now is how low the case count goes before it hits a "floor". Notably, the "floor" in the summer of 2020 was ~300 cases daily, but we're already moving below that figure at this point.

The bottom line, in my own assessment, is that vaccinations here in the DC area have been effective in pushing down new case counts to new lows.