May 2020 Summary Statistics

Much like I did with the month of April, I hope to present some summary statistics which can explain the trends that we observed during the month of May.

Total Case Growth
Total cases on 1 May: 26,389
Total cases in 31 May: 63,282
Total case increase: 36,893

Smallest daily case increase: 806 (24 May)
Largest daily case increase: 1,874 (19 May)

Median daily growth rate: 3%
Average daily growth rate: 3%



Total Fatality Growth
Total fatalities on 1 May: 1,100
Total fatalities in 31 May: 2,536
Total fatality increase: 1,436

Smallest daily fatality increase: 13 (31 May)
Largest daily fatality increase: 85 (2 May)

Median daily growth rate: 3%
Average daily growth rate: 3%


 
State-Level Shares for May 2020

Average & median share of regional cases for Maryland: 48%, 48%
Average & median share of regional fatalities for Maryland: 53, 53%
Maryland share of DC metropolitan-area population: 42%

Average & median share of regional cases for DC: 16%, 16%
Average & median share of regional fatalities for DC: 20%, 20%
DC share of DC metropolitan-area population: 13%


Average & median share of regional cases for Virginia: 36%, 36%
Average & median share of regional fatalities for Virginia: 27%, 27%
Virginia share of DC metropolitan-area population: 45%




Population-adjusted statistics, per 1,000 of population (data as of 31 May)
MD cases: 12.442
MD fatalities: 0.559

DC cases: 12.609
DC fatalities: 0.666

VA cases: 9.843
VA fatalities: 0.293







*For reference, the total populations of the relevant regions of Maryland, DC, and Virginia respectively are 2,379,026, 702,455 , and 2,522,001, with the respective shares 42%, 13%, and 45%. These numbers are calculated using the US Census Bureau's 2018 population estimates (ACS). I am using it because it is the most up-to-date data set which includes all of the jurisdictions in the DC area.

 DC Region: 5,603,482

 Maryland: 2,379,026

 Frederick County: 255,648
Montgomery County: 1,052,567
Prince George's County: 909,308
Charles County: 161,503

 DC: 702,455

 Northern Virginia: 2,522,001

 Arlington County: 237,521
City of Alexandria: 160,530
Fairfax County: 1,150,795
City of Fairfax: 24,574 (Note - aggregated with Fairfax County for VDH statistical purposes)
City of Falls Church: 14,772 (Note - aggregated with Fairfax County for VDH statistical purposes)
Loudoun County: 406,850
Prince William County: 468,011
City of Manassas: 41,641 (Note - aggregated with Prince William County for VDH statistical purposes
City of Manassas Park: 17,307 (Note - aggregated with Prince William County for VDH statistical purposes

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