DC Metropolitan Area COVID-19 Analysis

My work on this blog is ending as of today. It appears, for better or worse, that the public is moving on from COVID-19, and it doesn't make sense to continue computing statistics for an issue of increasingly marginal public concern. Perhaps it is fitting that this is all occurring in early March, which is almost two years to the date since this all began . My initial effort was to try to do something productive with the situation, particularly as many of us felt fairly helpless. I hope at least some of my analysis was useful to you. I will not be making any more updates, revisions, etc. I will keep all of the posts and data up in perpetuity, or at least as long as Google/Blogger keeps this blog up.

I will present some summary statistics which can explain the trends that we observed during the month of February 2022. This complements similar reports from   previous months . The post-peak decline of Omicron continued throughout the month. As of late February, the DC area is under 1,000 reported daily cases. This is the first time the region has been at that level since early December 2021 . Note that the apparent "spike" of infections in mid-late February was driven by single datum for 16 February (10,554 cases), which itself was driven by an unusual datum for Maryland (9,839 cases). I presume this was  backlog, and you will note that the downward trend continued. Total Case Growth Total cases on  31 January: 919,425 Total  cases  on 28 February: 959,092 Total  case  increase: 39,667 Smallest daily case increase: 343 (28 February) Largest daily case increase: 10,554  (16 February) Average daily increase: 1,417 Total Fatality Growth Total fatal...

This post updates COVID-19 confirmed case data for the DC Metropolitan area as of 9 February 2022 2022  (covering 3 -9 February) .  The total confirmed cases in the DC area rose by 10,528 t o  933,857   ( average daily increase of 1,504 )  from  the previous total of  923,329 . Fatalities rose  by 210 t o  9,025   ( average daily increase of 30 )  from  the previous total of  8,815 . This will be my last weekly update, although I'll continue to do the monthly update. With the apparent retreat of the omicron variant, which occurred nearly as rapidly as it took off in December, I'm not really sure what relevance the case counts have any more (if they ever did, particularly once vaccines became available). If this is, as some experts claim, approaching an endemic status, then I don't really have much rationale for watching weekly movements. Cases DC Region: 933,857 By State DC Region (933,857) Maryland: 392,181 District ...

This post updates COVID-19 confirmed case data for the DC Metropolitan area as of 2 February 2022 2022  (covering 27 January-2 February) .  The total confirmed cases in the DC area rose by 16,880 t o  923,329   ( average daily increase of 2,411 )  from  the previous total of  906,449 . Fatalities rose  by 149 t o  8,815   ( average daily increase of 21 )  from  the previous total of  8,666 . Cases DC Region: 923,329 By State DC Region (923,329) Maryland: 389,325 District of Columbia: 131,284 Virginia: 402,720 By Jurisdiction Maryland (389,325) Frederick County: 42,895 Montgomery County: 157,992 Prince George's County: 162,087 Charles County: 26,351 District of Columbia  ( 131,284 ) Virginia (402,720) Arlington County: 38,359 City of Alexandria: 28,528 Fairfax County: 170,709 Loudoun County: 62,621 Prince William County: 102,503 Fatalities DC Region: 8,815 By State DC Region (8,815) Maryland: 4,740 District of Col...

I will present some summary statistics which can explain the trends that we observed during the month of January 2022. This complements similar reports from   previous months . The Omicron wave appears to be well past peak, with newly-reported infections continuing to decline into late January Total Case Growth Total cases on  31 December: 663,692 Total  cases  on 31 January: 919,425 Total  case  increase: 255,273 Smallest daily case increase: 1,251 (31 January) Largest daily case increase:  18,497 (10 January) Average daily increase: 8,250 Total Fatality Growth Total fatalities on  31 December : 8,160 Total  fatalities  on 31 January: 8,756 Total  fatality  increase: 596 Smallest daily fatality increase: 3  ( 3 January ) Largest daily  fatality  increase: 45  (12 January ) Average daily increase : 19 Population-adjusted statistics, per 1,000 of population (data as of 31 January) MD cases: 163.169 MD fatalit...

This post updates COVID-19 confirmed case data for the DC Metropolitan area as of 26 January 2022  (covering 20-26 January) .  The total confirmed cases in the DC area rose by 31,856 t o  906,449   ( average daily increase of 4,551 )  from  the previous total of  874,593 . Fatalities rose  by 186 t o  8,666   ( average daily increase of 27 )  from  the previous total of  8,480 . Cases DC Region: 906,449 By State DC Region (906,449) Maryland: 384,293 District of Columbia: 129,479 Virginia: 392,677 By Jurisdiction Maryland (384,293) Frederick County: 42,141 Montgomery County: 155,675 Prince George's County: 160,594 Charles County: 25,883 District of Columbia  ( 129,479 ) Virginia (392,677) Arlington County: 37,211 City of Alexandria: 27,605 Fairfax County: 166,257 Loudoun County: 61,102 Prince William County: 100,502 Fatalities DC Region: 8,666 By State DC Region (8,666) Maryland: 4,641 District of Columbia: 1,282 ...

This post updates COVID-19 confirmed case data for the DC Metropolitan area as of 19 January 2022  (covering 13- 19 January) .  The total confirmed cases in the DC area rose by 55,787 t o  874,593   ( average daily increase of 7,970 )  from  the previous total of 818,806 . Fatalities rose  by 150 t o  8,480   ( average daily increase of 21 )  from  the previous total of 8,330 . Cases DC Region: 874,593 By State DC Region (874,593) Maryland: 372,196 District of Columbia: 126,676 Virginia: 375,721 By Jurisdiction Maryland (372,196) Frederick County: 40,760 Montgomery County: 149,856 Prince George's County: 156,723 Charles County: 24,857 District of Columbia  ( 126,676 ) Virginia (375,721) Arlington County: 35,479 City of Alexandria: 26,340 Fairfax County: 158,915 Loudoun County: 58,410 Prince William County: 96,577 Fatalities DC Region: 8,480 By State DC Region (8,480) Maryland: 4,490 District of Columbia: 1,264 Virginia: 2,...

Note: It seems the jurisdictions are largely back on schedule for reporting their statistics (after a rough holiday season which included snow storms, overwhelming numbers of test results, the tail end of a data breach, etc...) I'm going to try to get back to weekly reports.  This post updates COVID-19 confirmed case data for the DC Metropolitan area as of 12 January 2022  (covering 6 - 12 January) .  The total confirmed cases in the DC area rose by 93,629 t o  818,806  ( average daily increase of 13,376 )  from  the previous total of 725,177 . Fatalities rose  by 138 t o  8,330   ( average daily increase of 20 )  from  the previous total of 8,192 . Cases DC Region: 818,806 By State DC Region (818,806) Maryland: 350,454 District of Columbia: 120,327 Virginia: 348,025 By Jurisdiction Maryland (350,454) Frederick County: 38,319 Montgomery County: 138,825 Prince George's County: 150,072 Charles County: 23,238 District of Colu...

I will present some summary statistics which can explain the trends that we observed during the month of December 2021. This complements similar reports from   previous months .  As a reminder, this is the first monthly summary in which I will not do the "Regional Shares" analysis. Please see the November 2021 for my explanation. The impact from Omircon variant is evident, probably most dramatically through the extraordinary rise in reported infections. The daily infection count rose by nearly a factor of ten in the span of a month. Notably, the per-capita infection rate for DC is now higher than that of MD, for the time I can recall. Total Case Growth Total cases on  30 November: 525,948 Total  cases  on 31 December: 663,692 Total  case  increase: 137,744 Smallest daily case increase: 1,060 (1 December ) Largest daily case increase: 14,060  (31 December ) Average daily increase: 4,443 Total Fatality Growth Total fatalities on  30 November : ...

Maryland has been suffering from a server error for the past two weeks (interestingly enough, the result of a cyberattack ), and thus I haven't been able to receive their data updates. In turn, I have been unable to do my weekly updates. At least for the month of December 2021, I may suspend the weekly updates, and instead focus on a monthly update. This presumes that the server error is fixed by then, but we'll see.

I will present some summary statistics which can explain the trends that we observed during the month of November 2021. This complements similar reports from   previous months .  This will be the last monthly summary to include the "Regional Shares" analysis. It has become obvious over the past several months that the numbers for regional shares of infections and fatalities barely move, and if they do, they simply trend towards the population share. This doesn't really come as a surprise this far into the pandemic, but it also means that the statistic has lost any particular utility. Total Case Growth Total cases on  31 October: 507,807 Total  cases  on 30 November: 525,948 Total  case  increase: 18,141 Smallest daily case increase: 353 (1 November ) Largest daily case increase: 883  (17 November ) Average daily increase: 605 Total Fatality Growth Total fatalities on  31 October: 7,830 Total  fatalities  on 30 November : 7,957 Total...

This post updates COVID-19 confirmed case data for the DC Metropolitan area as of 1 December 2 021 (covering 25 November - 1 December) .  The total confirmed cases in the DC area rose by 4,740 t o  527,008  ( average daily increase of 677 )  from  the previous total of 522,268 . Fatalities rose  by 18 t o  7,962   ( average daily increase of 3 )  from  the previous total of 7,944 . Cases DC Region: 527,008 By State DC Region (527,008) Maryland: 228,503 District of Columbia: 67,173 Virginia: 231,332 By Jurisdiction Maryland (228,503) Frederick County: 25,907 Montgomery County: 85,430 Prince George's County: 102,189 Charles County: 14,977 District of Columbia  ( 67,173 ) Virginia (231,332) Arlington County: 19,543 City of Alexandria: 14,837 Fairfax County: 97,058 Loudoun County: 36,064 Prince William County: 63,830 Fatalities DC Region: 7,962 By State DC Region (7,962) Maryland: 4,152 District of Columbia: 1,197 Virginia: 2,613 B...