Concerning a Second Wave

If you're a regular reader of this blog, you've probably noticed case numbers have been on the rise since early/mid-October. This rise in the DC area seems to be very much in line with spikes seen pretty much all over the US.

As I said from the very beginning, I'm not an epidemiologist, so I won't be giving any hypotheses concerning this apparent wave. What I will say is that, by any measure, the DC area is in the early stages of a second wave of infections. 

The first wave occurred, roughly, between mid-March and mid-June, or about 3 months. If we expect this wave to be similar to the first, we can expect it to subside by mid-January 2021. I have no idea if this wave will be similar, larger, or smaller. I don't know if anyone knows.

The basis for making the call is pretty simple: continuously-rising infection rates. As you can see pretty easily in the case charts, for most of the summer (specifically following the end of the first wave), daily new infections were usually somewhere between 400 and 600. As of late, 600 has been the real minimum, and in truth, we've been hitting 800-1,000 per day. 

If I had to provide a date, I would say that it began in earnest on 8 October, when the 7-day moving average made a sudden jump from 444 to 502 cases - usually the rises and falls in the 7-day moving average are more gradual - and really hasn't slowed down since.

What about fatalities?

They're a lagging indicator, and dependent on many factors such as quality of treatment and comorbidity risks. I expect they'll go up as a result of more cases occurring. Important as they are on a human level, from the perspective of a strictly statistical outlook, they don't mean much to me.