DC-Area COVID-19 Fatalities (through 29 March)
*Note - If you just want to see the COVID-19 fatality data, jump down about nine paragraphs ("The Numbers").
I had been meaning to start writing about DC-area COVID-19 fatalities for about a week now, but a few different factors had been making me put it off. Fatalities , either confirmed or projected, are probably what grab the most attention for people interested in following the trajectory of the American COVID-19 epidemic. There's also some epidemiological utility, in that fatalities are not dependent on testing capacity and can serve as another indicator of the spread of the outbreak.
As I did before I started posting infection case updates, I want to briefly go over my methodology. The geographic scope for fatalities is identical to that of infections (see the "Introduction" post for more detail). Each jurisdiction post total fatalities counts on a daily basis. I will briefly describe the manner in which I record the fatalities from DC, Maryland and Virginia.
Washington, D.C. - This is by far the easiest of the three, for the simple fact that all fatalities fall within the DC area. Hence all fatalities are recorded. See this screen-shot below for an example:
Maryland - Maryland has been, compared to Virginia, the easier of the two states to track and record data. Until recent days, the Maryland Department of Health (MDH) would, on each morning, post the total statewide fatality count along with its county-by-county infection counts. Obviously a statewide fatality count doesn't do us much good if we're trying to know only the fatalities in the DC area. The MDH would then follow up with press releases or Twitter updates about the geographic details of the fatalities, often on the same day by the early afternoon. At that point, I would be able to note the fatalities which occurred in the DC area.
Quite conveniently, as of today (3 April), MDH now posts the fatality count, by county, in their morning update (see below). This makes the data update process relatively easy.
Virginia - By far the most difficult of the three to work with. Like MDH, the Virginia Department of Health would post the total amount of statewide fatalities on a daily basis each morning. However, unlike MDH, there were no regular updates about the fatalities on a county-by-county basis. Rather, the details would trickle out through various press releases, and the details are relatively late coming out. For instance, as of the time of writing of this post, I only have full county-level data through 29 March. For Maryland and DC, I have full data through 2 April.
On VDH's daily dashboard, there is a section that breaks out fatalities by health region. However, those numbers seem at odds with the actual confirmed fatalities (as determined through the press releases). I'm very hesitant to rely on local media reports, and I prefer VDH press releases, so hopefully those become posted on a more expedient manner in the near future.
Other stuff
**The Numbers**
The first DC-area COVID-19-associated fatality was on 18 March. Virginia data starting on 30 March is incomplete, hence the use of asterisks. The actual amount of fatalities for Northern Virginia, and hence the DC area, may be larger.
***Reconstructed Data***
I had been meaning to start writing about DC-area COVID-19 fatalities for about a week now, but a few different factors had been making me put it off. Fatalities , either confirmed or projected, are probably what grab the most attention for people interested in following the trajectory of the American COVID-19 epidemic. There's also some epidemiological utility, in that fatalities are not dependent on testing capacity and can serve as another indicator of the spread of the outbreak.
As I did before I started posting infection case updates, I want to briefly go over my methodology. The geographic scope for fatalities is identical to that of infections (see the "Introduction" post for more detail). Each jurisdiction post total fatalities counts on a daily basis. I will briefly describe the manner in which I record the fatalities from DC, Maryland and Virginia.
Washington, D.C. - This is by far the easiest of the three, for the simple fact that all fatalities fall within the DC area. Hence all fatalities are recorded. See this screen-shot below for an example:
Maryland - Maryland has been, compared to Virginia, the easier of the two states to track and record data. Until recent days, the Maryland Department of Health (MDH) would, on each morning, post the total statewide fatality count along with its county-by-county infection counts. Obviously a statewide fatality count doesn't do us much good if we're trying to know only the fatalities in the DC area. The MDH would then follow up with press releases or Twitter updates about the geographic details of the fatalities, often on the same day by the early afternoon. At that point, I would be able to note the fatalities which occurred in the DC area.
Quite conveniently, as of today (3 April), MDH now posts the fatality count, by county, in their morning update (see below). This makes the data update process relatively easy.
Virginia - By far the most difficult of the three to work with. Like MDH, the Virginia Department of Health would post the total amount of statewide fatalities on a daily basis each morning. However, unlike MDH, there were no regular updates about the fatalities on a county-by-county basis. Rather, the details would trickle out through various press releases, and the details are relatively late coming out. For instance, as of the time of writing of this post, I only have full county-level data through 29 March. For Maryland and DC, I have full data through 2 April.
On VDH's daily dashboard, there is a section that breaks out fatalities by health region. However, those numbers seem at odds with the actual confirmed fatalities (as determined through the press releases). I'm very hesitant to rely on local media reports, and I prefer VDH press releases, so hopefully those become posted on a more expedient manner in the near future.
Other stuff
- I take the fatality counts at face value, and I don't really care about the standards that each Department of Health uses to code/determine which fatalities are COVID-19-related and which one's aren't.
- I likely won't get into derivative calculations such as case fatality rate or anything else like that, due to a lack of time on my part. You're welcome to use my data to do it yourself.
**The Numbers**
The first DC-area COVID-19-associated fatality was on 18 March. Virginia data starting on 30 March is incomplete, hence the use of asterisks. The actual amount of fatalities for Northern Virginia, and hence the DC area, may be larger.
***Reconstructed Data***
| Date | Maryland | DC | Virginia | Total DC Area |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17-Mar-20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18-Mar-20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19-Mar-20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20-Mar-20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 21-Mar-20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 22-Mar-20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 23-Mar-20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 24-Mar-20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 25-Mar-20 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 26-Mar-20 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 8 |
| 27-Mar-20 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 28-Mar-20 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 13 |
| 29-Mar-20 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 23 |
| 30-Mar-20 | 9 | 9 | 6* | 24* |
| 31-Mar-20 | 11 | 11 | 6* | 28* |
| 1-Apr-20 | 15 | 12 | 9* | 36* |
| 2-Apr-20 | 18 | 15 | 9* | 42* |
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