DC Metropolitan Area COVID-19 Analysis

** CORRECTION NOTICE** The original post for April 17th contained a transcription error on my part for new cases in the DC area, specifically that of DC proper. This post has been updated with the correct figure, and a new chart. This post updates COVID-19 confirmed case data for the DC Metropolitan area as of April 17th 2020. The total confirmed cases in the DC area rose by 884 to  12,180  from  the previous total of 11,296 , an approximate 8% increase. The doubling time (3-day moving average) for cases in the DC area is approximately 10.5 days.  Fatalities rose by 33 to  379  from  the previous total of 346 , an approximate 10% increase. The doubling time (3-day moving average) for fatalities in the DC area is approximately 6.8 days. Cases DC Region: 12,180 By State DC Region (12,480) Maryland: 6,108 District of Columbia: 2,666 Virginia: 3,406 By Jurisdiction Maryland (6,108) Frederick County: 525 Montgomery County: 2,280 ...

A notable trend emerged in this week's data for confirmed COVID-19 cases in DC area, that the day-to-day increase was less than 10% for five straight days. This stands in contrast with mid and late March, when that figure was consistently higher than 15%. Hence the obvious question - has the DC area hit a peak. Is There A Peak? Probably. It may sound simple, but a single day dip does not constitute a trend. Thus, the first thing we would need to see was consecutive days of general downward movement to make the call. It would appear we have that, with an apparent peak date of 10-11 April .  It was key for me to see several days of the <10% figure, both to account for day-to-day noise, as well as day-of-week effects. By the latter, I mean the trend where weekends have consistently shown apparent dips, which later prove to be somewhat artificial. I'm not going to expand on the issue at this point, but I think the 12 April datum really shows what ...

This post updates COVID-19 confirmed case data for the DC Metropolitan area as of April 16th 2020. The total confirmed cases in the DC area rose by 803 to  11,296  from  the previous total of 10,943 , an approximate 8% increase. The doubling time (3-day moving average) for cases in the DC area is approximately 10.9 days.  Fatalities rose by 28 to  346 , from  the previous total of 318 , an approximate 9% increase. The doubling time (3-day moving average) for fatalities in the DC area is approximately 6.5 days. Notably, based on confirmed new infection data, it appears that the DC area may have reached the proverbial peak, something which I will address in greater detail in another blog post later today. Cases DC Region: 11,296 By State DC Region (11,296) Maryland: 5,679 District of Columbia: 2,476 Virginia: 3,141 By Jurisdiction Maryland (5,679) Frederick County: 497 Montgomery County: 2,133 Prince George's County: 2,722 Charles ...

This post updates COVID-19 confirmed case data for the DC Metropolitan area as of April 15th 2020. The total confirmed cases in the DC area rose by 555 to  10,943  from  the previous total of 9,938 , an approximate 6% increase. The doubling time (3-day moving average) for cases in the DC area is approximately 10.5 days.  Fatalities rose by 44 to  318 , from  the previous total of 274 , an approximate 16% increase. The doubling time (3-day moving average) for fatalities in the DC area is approximately 5.3 days. Cases DC Region: 10,943 By State DC Region (10,943) Maryland: 5,201 District of Columbia: 2,350 Virginia: 2,942 By Jurisdiction Maryland (5,201) Frederick County: 442 Montgomery County: 1,933 Prince George's County: 2,516 Charles County: 310 District of Columbia (2,350) Virginia (2,942) Arlington County: 420 City of Alexandria: 254 Fairfax County: 1,298 Loudoun County: 367 Prince William County: 603 ...

This post updates COVID-19 confirmed case data for the DC Metropolitan area as of April 14th 2020. The total confirmed cases in the DC area rose by 627 to  9,938  from  the previous total of 9,311 , an approximate 7% increase. The doubling time (3-day moving average) for cases in the DC area is approximately 10.7 days.  Fatalities rose by 27 to  274 , from  the previous total of 247 , an approximate 11% increase. The doubling time (3-day moving average) for fatalities in the DC area is approximately 6.3 days. Cases DC Region: 9,938 By State DC Region (9,938) Maryland: 4,972 District of Columbia: 2,197 Virginia: 2,769 By Jurisdiction Maryland (4,972) Frederick County: 441 Montgomery County: 1,883 Prince George's County: 2,356 Charles County: 292 District of Columbia (2,197) Virginia (2,769) Arlington County: 401 City of Alexandria: 247 Fairfax County: 1,207 Loudoun County: 344 Prince William County: 570 Fata...

This post updates COVID-19 confirmed case data for the DC Metropolitan area as of April 13th 2020. The total confirmed cases in the DC area rose by 752 to 9,311  from  the previous total of 8,559 , an approximate 9% increase. The doubling time (3-day moving average) for cases in the DC area is approximately 9.4 days.  Fatalities rose by 34 to  247 , from  the previous total of 213 , an approximate 16% increase^. The doubling time (3-day moving average) for fatalities in the DC area is approximately 6.4 days. Cases DC Region: 9,311 By State DC Region (9,311) Maryland: 4,652 District of Columbia: 2,058 Virginia: 2,601 By Jurisdiction Maryland (4,652) Frederick County: 417 Montgomery County: 1,756 Prince George's County: 2,205 Charles County: 274 District of Columbia (2,058) Virginia (2,601) Arlington County: 390 City of Alexandria: 235 Fairfax County: 1,167 Loudoun County: 324 Prince William County: 485 Fat...

This post updates COVID-19 confirmed case data for the DC Metropolitan area as of April 12th 2020. The total confirmed cases in the DC area rose by 434 to  8,559  from  the previous total of 8,125 , an approximate 5% increase. The doubling time for cases in the DC area is approximately 13.3 days.  Fatalities rose by 19 to  213 , from  the previous total of 194 , an approximate 10% increase. The doubling time for fatalities in the DC area is approximately 7.4 days. Cases DC Region: 8,559 By State DC Region (8,559) Maryland: 4,287 District of Columbia: 1,955 Virginia: 2,317 By Jurisdiction Maryland (4,287) Frederick County: 368 Montgomery County: 1,631 Prince George's County: 2,035 Charles County: 253 District of Columbia (1,955) Virginia (2,317) Arlington County: 366 City of Alexandria: 198 Fairfax County: 1011 Loudoun County: 309 Prince William County: 433 Fatalities DC Region: 213 By State...